By António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 19 2017 (IPS) - I will travel to the Central African Republic early next week to spend United Nations Day with a peacekeeping operation in order to pay tribute to peacekeepers across the world.
Peacekeeping operations are among the international community’s most effective tools for meeting the challenges of global peace and security. Peacekeepers show tremendous courage in volatile environments and great dedication in helping countries rise from the depths of armed conflict.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Credit: UN Photo
I thank the uniformed and civilian personnel for their contributions and the troop contributing countries for their commitment and generosity. This service too often claims the lives of those who serve. Since the beginning of the year, 67 peacekeepers have died in the line of duty. We honour their sacrifice.
In the Central African Republic, 12 peacekeepers have been killed from hostile acts this year alone. It is important to remember that five years ago, the Central African Republic was experiencing mass atrocities, and United Nations peacekeepers helped avert the worst.
Today, the situation remains very troubling. My visit also aims to draw attention to a fragile situation that is often far from the media spotlight. Across the country, communal tensions are growing. Violence is spreading. And the humanitarian situation is deteriorating.
Since the beginning of this year, the number of internally displaced persons has almost doubled, reaching 600,000. The number of refugees in neighbouring countries has surpassed 500,000. About one out of four people in the Central African Republic have been forced from their homes since the beginning of the crisis.
Despite these rising needs, humanitarian personnel and aid workers are being targeted and access restricted. This year alone, 12 humanitarians have been killed in the Central African Republic, making it one of the world’s most dangerous places for aid workers to serve.
Meanwhile, our appeals for emergency aid are only 30 per cent funded. My upcoming visit will be an opportunity to engage with the Government and others in order to ease suffering, halt the current backsliding, and strengthen international support for peace.
I also aim to give impetus to the new United Nations approach to addressing and preventing sexual exploitation and abuse. We know that the good work and the tremendous sacrifice of peacekeepers around the world has been tarnished by the appalling acts of some UN personnel who have harmed the people they were meant to serve.
I am pained that some peacekeepers are alleged to have committed egregious acts of sexual exploitation and abuse against the people of the Central African Republic. During my visit, I will be accompanied by Jane Connors, who I appointed recently to serve as the Organization’s first Victims’ Rights Advocate. We are determined to ensure that the voices of victims are heard – I will myself be ready to meet with victims and their families – in and beyond the Central African Republic. Victims must be at the centre of our response if we want our zero-tolerance policy to be successful.
This is a critical moment for the Central African Republic. Much has been accomplished, including the election of a president and a government, following the inclusive Bangui Forum.
A special criminal court has been established with the help of the United Nations to ensure accountability, and in several aspects there has been progress towards recovery.
We need to do everything we can to preserve these achievements, support the UN peacekeeping operation and sustain peace. I have just asked the Security Council to increase the ceiling of troops in the Central African Republic and also to increase their capacity, their mobility and their ability to address the very dramatic challenges they face.
But there is no military solution to this crisis. We will continue to cooperate with the African Union and strongly support the African Initiative for Peace and Reconciliation, and I urge all partners to move this process forward, under the leadership of the Government of the Central African Republic, in line with the so-called Libreville Roadmap.
The country has seen enough brutality, enough division, enough conflict. It is time to consolidate the fragile gains and transform them into a sustained investment in peace and stability for the people of the Central African Republic.
"Oceans: our allies against climate change. How marine ecosystems help preserve our world." Credit: FAO
ROME, Oct 20 2017 (IPS) - With 30 countries from Kenya to Indonesia and from Canada to Brazil now involved in the world campaign to beat pollution by countering the torrents of plastic trash that are degrading oceans and endangering the life they sustain, the UN has strengthened its massive efforts to clean up the seas, which are the Earth’s main buffer against climate change.
The 30 countries – all members of UN Environment Programme (UNEP)’s #CleanSeas campaign – account for about 40 per cent of the world’s coastlines–they are drawing up laws, establishing marine reserves, banning plastic bags and gathering up the waste choking their beaches and reefs.
Five ways the oceans help fight climate change and its effects:
1. Trapping carbon: Mangroves, coral reefs, salt marshes and sea-grasses make up just 1 per cent of the ocean’s seabed, but they contain between 50-70 per cent of the carbon stored in the oceans. - Like forests, marine ecosystems take greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and trap them, some of it for thousands of years. As such, these ecosystems are known as “blue carbon sinks.”
2. Reducing coastal erosion: Overtime, waves carry away sediment from the shore. When this happens more quickly or forcefully, for example because of large storms, it has the potential of causing major damage to homes and coastal infrastructure. - Sea grasses may look like our grass fields on land, but they are actually flowering plants that live in the salty environments of the sea floor and help hold sediment in place. Salt marshes, mangroves and coral reefs also help in slowing erosion and protecting shorelines.
3. Protecting marine life and biodiversity: Coral reefs occupy less than 0.1 per cent of the world's ocean surface, yet they provide a home for at least 25 per cent of all marine biodiversity. Often popular tourist attractions, coral reefs are the least secret of the ocean’s secret weapons. They draw people in to observe the wealth of marine life that they host. - However, coral reefs are delicate ecosystems that are increasingly strained by human activity. Careless tourism, water pollution, overfishing, rising temperature and acidity are all damaging these ecosystems, sometimes beyond repair.
4. Forming barriers to storms: Mangroves, salt-tolerant shrubs or small trees that grow in saline water of coastal areas, create barriers to destructive waves and hold sediments in place with their underwater root systems. This protects coastal communities in times of cyclones or other tropical storms. - In fact, scientists concluded that mangroves could have reduced the damages caused by the 2008 Nargis cyclone in Myanmar, where parts of the coastline had lost up to 50 per cent of its mangrove cover.
5. Slowing down destructive waves: Salt marshes are coastal wetlands that are flooded and drained by salt water brought in by the tides. Salt marshes are well-known for protecting the coast from soil erosion. - However, they are also an effective defence against storm surges and devastating waves. Salt marshes can reduce wave sizes by up to 20 per cent. - As the waves move through and around these marshes, the vegetation quells the force of the water and buffers the effects of these waves on coastal communities, FAO reports, adding that once viewed as wastelands, salt marshes can rival tropical rainforests in terms of biologically productive habitats, as they serve as nurseries and refuges for a wide variety of marine life.
The populous nations of East and South-East Asia account for most of the plastic trash entering the global ocean, UNEP reports, adding that in order to address this menace at its source, Indonesia has pledged to reduce its generation of plastic trash by 70 per cent by 2030, while the Philippines plans new laws targeting single-use plastics.
Human Addiction To Plastic Bags
Humanity’s unhealthy addiction to throwaway plastics bags is a particular target, the UN environment agency warns, while informing that countries including Kenya, France, Jordan, Madagascar and the Maldives have committed to banning plastic bags or restricting consumers to re-usable versions for which they have to pay. See: Plastic No More… Also in Kenya
“Legislation to press companies and citizens to change their wasteful habits is often part of broader government strategies to foster responsible production and consumption – a key step in the global shift toward sustainable development.”
According to UNEP, Belgium and Brazil, for instance, are both working on national action plans to curb marine pollution. Costa Rica has embarked on a five-year strategy to improve waste management that includes a push to reduce the use of plastics.
Eight Billion Tonnes of Plastic… A Year
The flow of pollution means detritus such as drink bottles and flip-flops as well as tiny plastic fragments including micro-beads used in cosmetics are concentrating in the oceans and washing up on the most remote shorelines, from deserted Pacific islets to the Arctic Circle, the UN specialised body informs.
“Humans have already dumped billions of tonnes of plastic, and we are adding it to the ocean at a rate of 8 million tonnes a year,” UNEP warns, adding that as well as endangering fish, birds and other creatures who mistake it for food or become entangled in it, plastic waste has also entered the human food chain with health consequences that are not yet fully understood.
It also harms tourist destinations and provides breeding grounds for mosquitoes carrying diseases including dengue and Zika.
The #CleanSeas campaign aims to “turn the tide on plastic” by inspiring action from governments, businesses and individuals on ocean pollution. See also: UN Declares War on Ocean Plastic
Another UN agency reminds that while it is well known that forests, especially rainforests, are key allies in the fight against climate change as they absorb greenhouse gas emissions, oceans are the earth’s main buffer against it.
In fact, about 25 per cent of the greenhouse gases that we emit actually gets absorbed by the oceans, as does over 90 per cent of the extra heat produced by human-induced climate change, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reports.
“However, oceans are also one of the most affected by it.”
According to the Rome-based UN agency, human activities are resulting in acidification and increasing water temperatures that are changing our oceans and the plant and animal life within them.
More Plastic than Fish?
The UN estimates that there will be more plastic than fish in the ocean by 2050 – with over 5 trillion pieces of plastic weighing more than 260,000 tonnes currently floating in the world’s oceans. Meanwhile, harmful fishing subsidies that contribute to overfishing are estimated to be as high as 35 billion dollars.
Coral reefs and coastal environments in tropical regions, including mangroves and salt marshes, are in particular danger, warns the UN food and agriculture agency.
“These ecosystems store much of the carbon, which then remains in the oceans for hundreds of years, and are thus one of our “allies” against climate change.”
However, since the 1940s, over 30 per cent of mangroves, close to 25 per cent of salt marshes and over 30 per cent of sea-grass meadows have been lost.
“Right when we need them the most, we are losing these crucial ecosystems.”
UN #CleanSeas campaign aims to combat marine plastic litter
— The ocean has it all: from microscopic life to the largest animal that has ever lived on earth, from the colourless to the iridescent, from the frozen to the boiling and from the sunlit to the mysterious dark of the deepest parts of the planet.
— The ocean is the largest ecosystem on earth and provides 99 per cent of the living space for life. It is a fascinating, but often little explored place.
— The ocean affects us in many different ways. It provides us with an important source of food and other natural resources. It influences our climate and weather, provides us with space for recreation and gives us inspiration for stories, artwork and music.
— The list of benefits we get from the ocean is almost endless! But we are also affecting the ocean.
— Overfishing is reducing fish populations, threatening the supply of nutritious food and changing marine food webs.
— Our waste is found in massive floating garbage patches and plastics have been found from the arctic to the bottom of the deepest places in the ocean.
— Climate change and its related impacts, such as ocean acidification, are affecting the survival of some marine species.
— Coastal development is destroying and degrading important marine habitats. Even recreation is known to impact marine habitats and species.
— We need a clean and healthy ocean to support our own health and survival, even if we don’t live anywhere near it.
Now you know! It would good to also remember that humankind managed to survive over millions and millions of years… without plastic!
KOLKATA (miningweekly.com) – In a blame game over a supposed coal shortage in the country, India’s Coal Ministry has fingered thermal power companies for their failure to follow procedures and a lack of efficient inventory management, while demanding more supplies of dry fuel.
The Coal Ministry has claimed that it has been warning thermal power producers in the country since last June about coal stocks falling rapidly and the need to stock up in view of rising electricity demand across industry and households in the country.
The Ministry has issued advisories to thermal power plants about the need to restock fuel as per Central Electricity Authority norms that require all thermal power plants to maintain stocks of a minimum 22 days' consumption, but they have failed to do so.
The thermal power companies have been told that the reason for a loss in power generation, as currently experienced, should not be attributed to coal suppliers and that the temptation to save money in inventory building and carrying costs was to blame and not a sound way of doing business, Coal Ministry Secretary Susheel Kumarsaid in a statement.
The Ministry has pointed out that CoalIndia Limited was carrying pithead stocks of more than 30-million tons. Dispatches to power plants across the country were up 22% year-on-year in September, and these were not indications of low fuel supplies to power companies, a Ministry official said.
The ‘just-in-time’ principle of inventory management does not work for thermal power companies, simply because of the sheer volumes involved in transportation from pitheads to plants and the minimum turnaround time required by railways rakes, the official added.
Notwithstanding the stand of the Coal Ministry, information collated from various provincial governments indicated an acute shortage of coal at thermal power plants.
The Central Indian province of Rajasthan has reported that despite plants located in the region boasting a combined power production capacity of 4 940 MW it was currently producing a shade below 2 900 MW owing to shortage of coal. Seeking immediate allocation of coal, the Karnatakagovernment said that power plants operated by it were currently holding coal stocks of about one day’s consumption.
While it was still not clear whether low stocks with thermal power plants were the result of lower volumes available or distribution bottlenecks or poor planning, data released indicated a slowdown in coal production growth.
CIL, accounting for over 80% of supplies to thermal powerplants, recorded a marginal growth in production at 0.8%, or 231.87-million tons, during the first half of 2017/18, compared with the year-ago corresponding period.
However, offtake growth was recorded by the miner at 8%, an indication that part of rising demand was being met from pithead stocks, prompting some analysts to maintain that drawdown on stocks without incremental production growth, would not be sustainable in sustaining supplies in the medium term.
EDITED BY: MARIAAN WEBB CREAMER MEDIA SENIOR RESEARCHER AND DEPUTY EDITOR ONLINE
An important and first step in the restoration of Iraq’s integrity is to withdraw Peshmerga military forces from Iraq’s city of Kirkuk, which is of strategic importance.
As is known, not only the Iraqi Armed Forces, but also Shiite Hashd al-Shaabi forces were involved in the liberation of Kirkuk city.
During the liberation operation, the Turkish Foreign Ministry made two statements and called the Iraqi authorities for restoring the ethnicity of the city that is, creating conditions for ethnic Turkmans who were driven out by the Peshmerga forces, to return to their historical lands.
But the Iraqi authorities have not reacted to this appeal. Turkey, in its turn, welcomed the restoration of Iraq’s integrity.
The Iraqi Armed Forces and Hashd al-Shaabi have recently established control over the Bashiqa town, where once the Peshmerga forces were trained. The Turkish military base is also located in Bashiqa town.
Once Baghdad and Ankara had serious problems due to Turkey's military base in Iraq.
The foreign ministers of the countries of the League of Arab States (LAS) held an emergency meeting in 2015 to discuss the presence of Turkish troops there. LAS Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby said that the presence of Turkish troops, which was not coordinated with the Iraqi authorities, violates the norms of international law and Iraq’s sovereignty.
Turkey has explained that the presence of its military contingent in Bashiqa town is aimed at training of Peshmerga forces against the Islamic State (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh) terrorist group.
At that time, Ankara and Erbil were allies, but today there is a completely different situation in Iraq.
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that chaos in the region is observed due to Erbil, led by Masoud Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
That is, it is possible to say that after the referendum on independence in Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region, Ankara lost its ally, against which it imposed economic sanctions.
As a result of the recent military actions, the Kurdish autonomous region lost such important cities as Kirkuk, Sinjar, Mukhmur, Celavla, Hanekin within 48 hours, while Baghdad has been demanding to withdraw the Peshmerga forces from Sulaymaniyah city.
The Iraqi Armed Forces managed to barely control previously lost lands and the authorities still hope that it would be possible to establish full control over Iraq. And the Iraqi authorities are unlikely to make any concessions to their new "ally" - Turkey.
After the establishment of control over Sulaimaniya city, Baghdad will be able to demand Ankara to immediately withdraw its military contingent from Bashiqa town.
Earlier, Hashd al-Shaabi announced its readiness to fight the Turkish army if Turkey does not withdraw its military contingent from Bashiqa town.
Iraq will unlikely to fulfill Turkey's demand for the restoration of the ethnicity in Kirkuk city.
SEOUL, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- Military options against North Korea should be the "last resort," a senior Polish diplomat said Thursday, urging the U.S. and other key countries to focus on diplomatic efforts up until the last minute.
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marek Magierowski also called on China and Russia to do more to help make the current U.N. sanctions yield the intended effects of putting pressure on the North to give up its nuclear and missile programs.
"Poland wouldn't like to see the Korean Peninsula in flames because that will be the end," he said. "I can't imagine the consequences. So we do believe military options are absolutely the last resort."
"I can't imagine a situation in which these options would be triggered. I am convinced that we have to use all nonmilitary arguments and nonmilitary measures to change the situation," he added.
Magierowski, who is also in charge of his country's economic diplomacy, was in Seoul for policy consultations with the Seoul government on a wide range of issues.
Tensions have been running high over the North's nuclear and missile tests and a war of words between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, both of whom have threatened military actions.
He called for more patience to see if the existing U.N. Security Council resolutions will pay off, as sanctions usually take time before a targeted country feels a real pinch.
"I will wait patiently for the outcome of those newly adopted resolutions," he said. "We have to wait because the impacts are never immediate. Let's wait and let's monitor the situation closely," he said.
Poland, he said, has faithfully enforced the existing U.N. Security Council resolutions and has sometimes taken the lead in putting more pressure on the North.
They include its early decision not to renew working permits for North Korean laborers in the European country at a time when they are viewed as a source of money necessary for the Kim Jong-un regime to advance its missile and nuclear development programs.
"A long time ago, we decided not to issue more working permits for North Korean workers coming to Poland. So as soon as the valid working permits expire, we will not renew them," he said. "In a certain period of time, all North Korean workers will have to leave Poland."
According to data provided by its government, the number of North Korean laborers in the country stood at 700-800 in 2016 but was reduced to 550 last year and to around 400 this year. The current figure accounts for 0.4 percent of all North Korean workers in overseas countries, it claimed.
Poland is known for its relatively long history of close relations with North Korea. It currently runs its embassy in Pyongyang.
Asked whether Warsaw could join international efforts to isolate North Korea by cutting its decadeslong diplomatic ties, Magierowski said that his government has no plan to do so at this moment but noted that it will "reduce our exposure and our contacts with the North Korean regime."
He added its diplomatic mission in Pyongyang can be used as a "very valuable channel of communication" with the reclusive North.
"Our presence in North Korea is valuable. It's also precious for other countries, for South Korea, for the U.S. and for other partners in the European Union as well," he said.
The Polish diplomat called for more efforts by China, along with Russia, to make the current sanctions regime more effective and eventually help bring the North out to the negotiating table.
"Actually the ball is in the court of China and Russia, mostly in China," he said. "We not only have to focus on North Korea but also have to convince the Chinese partners."
"They have to work arm in arm with the international community, with South Korea, with the U.S., with Poland and with the European Union to make the situations more palatable and to persuade the North Korean regime to sit down at the table and negotiate a decent deal," he said.
SEOUL, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's Army said Thursday it will be quick in totally destroying North Korea's front-line artillery systems in the event of a war on the peninsula.
In a report to the National Assembly, the Army presented a three-tier missile strike concept in the early stage of an armed conflict.
The weapon that will first be mobilized is a tactical surface-to-surface missile, called KTSSM and known as artillery killer.
"KTSSM-I will strike the enemy's tunnels with the 170-mm self-propelled howitzers and 240-mm multiple-rocket launch systems," it said during the regular parliamentary audit of the operation of the 490,000 troops.
Most of the North's artillery equipment, camouflaged and embedded, is deployed along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) and the coast of its border islands.
And KTSSM-II will be used to bomb SCUD missile facilities and 300-mm rocket launchers, it added.
South Korea's Hyunmoo-II ballistic missile is fired during a recent training in this file photo (Yonhap)
The Army also plans to fire Hyunmoo-II ballistic missiles against the North's nuclear and other WMD systems and supporting units.
The South's indigenous Hyunmoo-class missiles have a range of up to 800km, while Hyunmoo-III is a longer-range cruise missile.
In order to take the North's leadership out, the Army is seeking to acquire more powerful ballistic missiles, tentatively named the Hyunmoo-IV.
Seoul has reached a de-facto deal with Washington to revise their missile development guidelines so that it can double the maximum payload of its ballistic missiles. Under a bilateral accord with the U.S. revised in 2012, it can develop ballistic missiles with a range of up to 800km and a payload weight of up to 500kg.
As their presidents -- Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump - agreed in principle on the issue, the allies are in consultations on the details.
South Korea's armed forces are pushing for a broader "three-axis" defense platform against the North's threats and provocations -- the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) scheme.
SOCHI, October 19. /TASS/. The latest US sanctions are aimed at forcing Russia out of the European energy market, so that Europe could buy more expensive American liquefied natural gas (LNG), Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club on Thursday.
He noted that international politics is interfering in economic relations. "The recent sanction package adopted by the US Congress is frankly aimed at forcing Russia out of the European energy markets, pushing Europe to switch to more expensive liquefied gas from the US, and there is not enough volume," Putin said.
He also drew attention to attempts to obstruct the projects of constructing new gas pipeline routes, despite the fact that such diversification of logistics is "economically efficient, beneficial to Europe, serves to enhance its security"
According to Putin, universal economic interdependence did not become a guarantee against political contradictions between the countries - on the contrary, the nature of confrontations became more complicated, "they became multilayered and nonlinear."
Putin is confident that in the modern world, strategic gains at the expense of other countries are impossible. "Such policy based on self-confidence, selfishness, will bring neither respect nor greatness. However, natural rejection and resistance will inevitably arise. As a result, we will get further growth of tension and contradictions, instead of trying to form a stable world order together, responding to manmade, environmental, climatic, humanitarian challenges that mankind is facing today," Putin said.
MOSCOW, October 19./TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a decree extending the current ten-percent salary cut for the head of state, prime minister and other state officials for another year.
Under Putin’s February 2015 decree, his staff’s salaries were slashed by ten percent from January 1 to December 31, 2017. Now, the president has signed a new decree, extending the reductions into the next year. The directive trimming ten percent from their salaries from January 1 to December 31, 2018 has been posted on the official Internet portal of legal information.
Under the presidential order, federal civil servants from the presidential administration will be eligible for the same salary cuts next year. The ruling also refers to federal civil servants from the Central Office of the Russian government and the office of the Audit Chamber.
The first cutbacks in civil servant salaries came in 2015, and were subsequently extended each following year.
Crude oil prices turn negative in early Thursday trading after a Russian oil executive said a long-sought-after balanced market was fragile. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI
| License Photo
Oct. 19 (UPI) -- A downbeat sentiment from a Russian oil boss on the trajectory for crude oil prices sent key benchmarks diving into negative territory early Thursday.
Outside of the first week in October, crude oil prices have been holding steady in bullish territory for the better part of the third quarter. The rally is due in part to the effort by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to balance the market through coordinated production cuts, an effort that includes a handful of non-member producers like Russia.
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly market report for October that, for 2018, three out of the four quarters will show a market more or less in balance, assuming OPEC output stays the same and there are no major unforeseen disruptions.
Igor Sechin, the head of Russian oil company Rosneft, said U.S. shale oil production was out of OPEC's control and could threaten the drain on the surplus in the five-year average for global crude oil inventories.
"The balance is fragile and unstable so far," he was quoted as saying by Russian news agency Tass. "I think therefore that we should not expect a surge in oil prices in near future."
The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for the price of oil, was down 1.4 percent at 9:20 a.m. EDT to $57.31 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was down 1.5 percent to $51.24 per barrel.
The difference, or spread, between Brent and WTI is making U.S. crude oil competitive on the open market. U.S exports are near record territory, though U.S. oil has only been moving freely since 2015, when former President Barack Obama lifted a 40-year-old ban on exports.
A report emailed from RBC Capital on Thursday said more U.S. oil exports could be supportive of crude oil prices.
"We have long expected the WTI discount to Brent to remain wide until the market arrives at the juncture where inventories outside the United States normalize and the call on U.S. crude exports increases to plug global supply gaps," the report read. "This is an incrementally bullish signal worth watching."
The price for Brent crude oil has made a few runs on $60 per barrel this year, but has so far failed to break through the ceiling. Ole Hanson, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told UPI a U.S. report on domestic oil storage drains and gasoline inventory builds helped take the steam out of the recent rally.
"The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report yesterday was mildly bearish, while the supply disruptions from northern Iraq seems to have been quantified and Iraq expect production from Kirkuk to resume over the weekend," he said.
Iraqi forces seized control over the oil fields in Kirkuk this week amid skirmishes with forces loyal to the Kurdistan Regional Government. So far, there are few indications that any disruptions to oil will be long term.