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Attack On North Korea Could Spare Allies

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Days after President Donald Trump referred to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as “rocket man” and members of his administration made it clear military options against Pyongyang remained on the table, Defense Secretary James Mattis sought to calm growing fears of American intervention on the Korean Peninsula by arguing that the United States had military options at its disposal that wouldn’t necessarily spell disaster for allies in the region.
Days after President Donald Trump referred to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as “rocket man” and members of his administration made it clear military options against Pyongyang remained on the table, Defense Secretary James Mattis sought to calm growing fears of American intervention on the Korean Peninsula by arguing that the United States had military options at its disposal that wouldn’t necessarily spell disaster for allies in the region.
When pressed on Monday about escalating rhetoric from the White House regarding Kim’s nuclear ambitions, Mattis was asked during a press briefing at the Pentagon if there were any military strategies for dealing with North Korea that would protect Seoul, the South Korean metropolis home to 25 million people. In a terse comment that surprised international relations experts, Mattis hinted that there were, although he refrained from elaborating.
“Yes there are. But I will not go into details,” he said. When asked if they might include the use of lethal force, he replied: “I don’t want to go into that.”
If such military options do exist, they are largely new to analysts studying the Korean Peninsula. 
“I don’t know what plan would not put Seoul at risk,” said Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. “The bottom line is: North Korea does have the artillery. It’s vague enough that I want to give [Mattis] the benefit of the doubt, but I cannot conceive of a way where you would militarily engage with North Korea and not put Seoul at risk.”
Seoul’s geographic proximity to North Korea has been a deterrent for U.S. military intervention on the Korean peninsula. Pyongyang has thousands of traditional arms ― rocket launchers and cannons ― buried in the mountains just north of the Demilitarized Zone that could rain down upon Seoul’s skyscrapers if Kim felt threatened. The weaponry, built up in the decades since the end of the Korean War, is heavily fortified and would be almost impossible to take out in one fell swoop.
Jonathan Pollack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution specializing in Korea and China, was puzzled by Mattis’ statements, arguing that the defense secretary is usually a “voice of real reason” in the Trump administration. 
“He’s a very sober, careful guy,” Pollack said. “Frankly, I haven’t got a clue about what he’s talking about ... He knows what the terrain looks like, he knows what the risks are, he knows how deeply buried and dispersed the North Koreans are... I guess I’m having difficulty connecting the dots.”
Mattis’ comments could unnerve American allies in South Korea as they once again raise the prospect of unilateral action by the U.S. against the north, Pollack added.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has openly warned the U.S. against doing just that, and has worked to use diplomacy and deterrence to counter Kim. The United Nations recently imposed harsh new sanctions against Pyongyang and the U.S. and South Korea staged joint bombing drills over the Korean Peninsula this week in a show of force.
But Trump officials continue to raise the specter of military action and signal that they are losing patience with Kim. North Korea recently conducted its second test of a ballistic missile that flew over Japan, following up on its sixth, and by far the most powerful, nuclear test earlier this month. 
“If our diplomatic efforts fail, though, our military option will be the only one left,” Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “To be clear, we seek a peaceful solution to this.”
Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., echoed those sentiments on CNN that same day, saying: “If North Korea keeps on with this reckless behavior, if the United States has to defend itself or defend its allies in any way, North Korea will be destroyed.”
However, it’s unlikely such destruction would be one-sided.
Vipin Narang, an associate professor at MIT studying nuclear proliferation, said any expectation otherwise seemed like “extremely heroic assumptions.”
“It is more likely that we cannot have 100 percent certainty in disarming the country,” he said in an email. “Any attack on North Korea that doesn’t fully annihilate its conventional and WMD forces exposes Seoul ―and U.S. forces and dependents, Japan, U.S. territories, and even possibly the U.S. homeland ― to potentially massive destruction.”
  • This article originally appeared on HuffPost.

Putin attends military drills that worry Russia's neighbors

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LUZHSKY RANGE, Russia (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday attended the weeklong war games with Belarus that have demonstrated the Russian military's resurgent might and made neighboring countries nervous.


Putin observed the Zapad (West) 2017 drills — tank attacks, airborne assaults and air raids that got underway Thursday — at the Luzhsky range in western Russia, just over 100 kilometers (about 60 miles) east of Estonia's border.
As part of the maneuvers, the Russian military on Monday also test-fired its state-of-the-art cruise missile at a mock target in the Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan, showcasing the weapon's extended range and precision strike capability.
Some nervous NATO members, including the Baltic states and Poland, have criticized an alleged lack of transparency about the war games and questioned Moscow's intentions. The exercises, held in several firing ranges in Belarus and western Russia, run through Wednesday. Russia and Belarus say 5,500 Russian and 7,200 Belarusian troops are participating, but some NATO countries have estimated that up to 100,000 troops could be involved.
With Russia's relations with the West at a post-Cold War low point over the fighting in Ukraine, worries about the war games ranged from allegations that Russia could permanently deploy its forces to Belarus to fears of a surprise onslaught on the Baltics.
Russia and Belarus have said the exercises simulate a response to foreign-backed "extremists" and insisted the maneuvers don't threaten anyone. Their troops are fighting three invented "aggressor countries" — Veishnoriya, Lubeniya and Vesbariya. However, the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — and Poland see the monikers for the made up enemies as thinly disguised references to their nations.
NATO has rotated military units in the Baltics and Poland and staged regular drills in the region, activities Moscow has criticized as a reflection of the alliance's hostile intentions. Russia and Belarus kept the stated number of troops involved in the drills just below 13,000, a limit allowing them to dodge more intrusive inspections by NATO in line with international agreements. The practice maneuvers nonetheless have put Russia's massive military mobilization capability on display.
They also have involved various branches of the Russian military, including the air force's long-range bombers and missile forces. In a reflection of the drills' broad scope, they featured Monday's launch of the Iskander-M cruise missile, a new weapon that has drawn concern from the United States.
The missile, launched from the Kapustin Yar firing range in southwestern Russia, hit a mock target at a range in Kazakhstan, some 480 kilometers (nearly 300 miles) away, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
The U.S. has accused Russia of developing cruise missiles banned by the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with a goal to threaten U.S. facilities in Europe and the NATO alliance. Moscow has rejected the accusations and insisted it has adhered to the pact.
The INF Treaty bans an entire class of weapons — all land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 and 3,410 miles). The Iskander-M's stated range puts it just below the pact's threshold.
The Zapad 2017 maneuvers are intended to underline the close military cooperation between Russia and Belarus, but also revealed signs of strains between the allies. While Putin watched the previous drills in 2013 with his Belarusian counterpart, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said he would watch them separately on Wednesday.
Lukashenko has relied on subsidized Russian oil and gas supplies and billions of dollars in loans to keep his nation's Soviet-style economy afloat. At the same time, he often has bristled at what he described as the Kremlin's attempts to subdue Belarus and force it to surrender control over prized economic assets.
Lukashenko also has flirted with the West to try to reduce his dependence on Russia. His decision to dodge a joint appearance with Putin at the military exercises was seen by observers as an attempt to put some distance between Belarus and its giant eastern neighbor.
"Lukashenko is trying to mend ties with the West to get new loans, and the Kremlin's military games don't help that," Alexander Klaskovsky, a Minsk-based political analyst, said.
Isachenkov reported from Moscow. Yuras Karmanau in Minsk contributed to this report.

Trump considering Fourth of July military parade

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NEW YORK (AP) — The Latest on President Donald Trump (all times local): 3:30 p.m. President Donald Trump says he is considering having an armed forces parade in Washington on the Fourth of July to showcase the nation's military might.


Trump met Monday with French president Emmanuel Macron on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings. Trump reminisced about how much he enjoyed watching France's military parade while in Paris on Bastille Day.
He then said he was considering ordering up a similar spectacle for Pennsylvania Avenue, potentially as soon as next year. Trump said he asked his chief of staff, John Kelly, to look into it. Trump and Macron were also slated to discuss other international concerns, including terrorism and security, during their meeting.
1:20 p.m.
President Donald Trump is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and says they "are giving it an absolute go'" in Middle East peace talks.
Trump on Monday said that "we're working very hard" to reach a deal between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu said that Israel's alliance with the United States has been "never stronger" than now under the Trump administration. He also blasted the Iran nuclear agreement.
Asked if the U.S. would stay in that deal, Trumped answered only "you'll see very soon."
Trump's meeting with Netanyahu was the first of the many world leader confabs he is scheduled to have on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week.
He is slated to meet with the Palestinians in the coming days.
12:30 p.m.
The White House says President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have discussed North Korea's continued nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests.
The leaders spoke by phone Monday while Trump is in New York for this week's U.N. General Assembly session. Xi skipped this year's gathering.
The White House says Trump and Xi committed to "maximizing pressure" on North Korea through vigorous enforcement of U.N. Security Council resolutions.
China sits on the security council, which has voted unanimously on two separate occasions in recent weeks to tighten sanctions on North Korea over its weapons testing.
Trump has also been pressing Xi to use his influence to help rein in North Korea.
10:05 a.m.
President Donald Trump is pressing the need for reform at the United Nations as he speaks at a meeting on U.N. reform ahead of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.
He is applauding efforts by the secretary general to reform the organization "so that it better serves the people we all represent."
Trump adds that the U.N. "has not reached its full potential because of bureaucracy and mismanagement."
He says the group spends too much money and has too many staffers, and declares: "We are not seeing results in line with this investment."
He also says no member state should shoulder a disproportionate share of the cost.
Trump's first appearance before the organization is at a U.S.-sponsored event on reforming the 193-member organization.
4:15 a.m.
President Donald Trump is plunging into a foreign policy-focused week that will be anchored by his first address to the United Nations General Assembly.
Trump planned Monday to address a U.S.-sponsored event on reforming the 193-member world body.
Trump criticized the U.N. during the presidential campaign as weak and incompetent, but has softened his tone since taking office. Trump wants the U.N. to cut spending and make other operational changes.
The president also meets separately Monday with the leaders of Israel and France, and hosts Latin American leaders for dinner.

France defends Iran nuclear deal

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UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - France made a fresh plea on Monday for the United States to preserve the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and suggested its provisions expiring after a decade could be strengthened, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he would decide on the matter soon.
The pact between Tehran and six world powers, which calls for Iran to curb its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions, is under threat as Trump must decide by Oct. 15 whether to certify Iran is keeping its end of the bargain.
If Trump, who as recently as on Thursday accused Iran of violating “the spirit” of the deal, chooses not to certify, the pact could unravel, possibly triggering a regional arms race.
Asked whether he planned to stick with the agreement, Trump told reporters as he began a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday: “You’ll be seeing very soon.”
The Republican president has called the agreement, struck under his Democratic predecessor, Barack Obama, “the worst deal ever negotiated.”
The prospect of Washington reneging on the agreement has worried some of the U.S. allies that helped negotiate it, especially as the world grapples with another nuclear crisis, North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile development.
“It is essential to maintain it to avoid proliferation. In this period when we see the risks with North Korea, we must maintain this line,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told reporters.
“France will try to convince President Trump of the pertinence of this choice (keeping the accord) even if work can be done to complement the accord after 2025,” he said.
Trump must decide in October whether to certify that Iran is complying with the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). If he does not, Congress has 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions waived under the deal.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Sunday that Tehran would react strongly to any “wrong move” by Washington on the nuclear deal.
French President Emmanuel Macron will meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani after Trump to tell him that Tehran must play its role in not stoking American anger through its activities in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, a French presidential source said.
After meeting Netanyahu on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, the U.S. president was to see Macron, who, like Trump, is making his inaugural appearance at the annual gathering of world leaders.
They have very different messages to deliver.
“I look forward to discussing with you how we can address what you rightly called a terrible nuclear deal with Iran and how to roll back Iran’s growing aggression in the region, especially in Syria,” Netanyahu said before he and Trump began meeting.
U.S. President Donald Trump listens during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York, U.S., September 18, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
Israeli officials said Netanyahu would relay concerns over what Israel describes as Tehran’s growing military entrenchment in Syria and its post-civil war role in that country.
They said changes that Israel was seeking in JCPOA included lengthening the 10-year freeze on Iran’s nuclear development program or even making that suspension permanent and destroying centrifuges rather than temporarily halting their operation.

FRANCE SEES NO ALTERNATIVE

The deal was brokered by the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany and France. The six will meet with Iran at the ministerial level on Wednesday.
Slideshow (3 Images)
Paris took one of the hardest lines against Tehran in the negotiations, but has been quick to restore trade ties and Macron has said repeatedly there is no alternative to the deal.
French officials say Iran is respecting the JCPOA and that, were the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to say otherwise, a mechanism exists to reimpose sanctions.
The IAEA is the body ensuring the accord is carried out, but the United States and Iran quarreled over how Tehran’s nuclear activities should be policed at an IAEA meeting on Monday after a call by Washington last month for wider inspections.

DIVIDING WORLD POWERS

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson argued on Friday that Washington must consider the full threat it says Iran poses to the Middle East when crafting its new policy toward Tehran.
A senior French diplomat underlined that the nuclear deal was achieved in large part because it was not linked to all the other grievances the United States may have had with Iran.
With Europeans not on the same page as the Trump administration, Iranian officials say they have an opportunity to divide the P5+1 group that negotiated the deal with Iran.
A senior Iranian diplomat and a former nuclear negotiator said he believed the Europeans had no intention in following Trump’s overtly aggressive Iran policy.
“They are wise. Look at the region. Crisis everywhere. From Iraq to Lebanon. Iran is a reliable regional partner for Europe, not only a trade partner but a political one as well,” the diplomat said.
“European powers have been committed to the deal. The IAEA has repeatedly confirmed Iran’s commitment to the deal. Trump’s insistence on his hostile policy towards Iran will further deepen the gap among the P5+1 countries,” the diplomat said.

Bank of Canada watching impact of higher rates

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SASKATOON, Saskatchewan (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will pay close attention to how the economy responds to both higher interest rates and a stronger Canadian dollar, and remains data-dependent as it looks ahead to further decisions on interest rates, a top official said on Monday.
Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane reiterated the bank’s previous message that growth is becoming more broadly based and self-sustaining, while emphasizing that policy remains appropriate following the bank’s two recent rate hikes.
“Each decision is a live decision .... We’re watching the numbers as they come along, we’re trying to understand how the economy is evolving and therefore what degree of monetary policy stimulus is still appropriate,” Lane said after a speech to the Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority.
Lane said the stronger Canadian dollar, which hit a two-year high against the greenback following the bank’s Sept. 6 rate hike, is something policymakers will watch closely given currency strength dampened exports in the past.
“Now as the Canadian dollar is strengthening, we’re certainly watching that closely and we’ll be taking that into account pretty strongly in making our decisions,” Lane said in response to a question from the audience.
The Canadian currency CAD= weakened following Lane's remarks, dipping to 1.2338 to the U.S. dollar, or 81.05 U.S. cents, its weakest point since the day of the rate hike.
Lane also said that Canadian households are far more indebted now than they have been in the past when interest rates were closer to neutral, but said a stronger Canadian economy should help boost incomes to help debt costs.
He also said Canada’s long period of low interest rates helped drive Canada’s prolonged housing boom, but that consumers should remember that neither low interest rates nor double-digit home price appreciation are normal - and they will not last.
Lane outlined what went into the bank’s unexpected decision to raise rates two meetings in a row - about a month earlier than many economists had expected - saying the resource economy was rebounding even as the rest of the economy was continuing to grow strongly.
“So that’s kind of what data dependent looks like,” he said.
In his speech, Lane said the bank would be watching the NAFTA negotiations very closely to gauge their implications for exports and business investment, noting the possibility of a “material protectionist shift” is a key source of uncertainty for Canada’s economic outlook.

Motorbike explosion in Syrian city kills child

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BEIRUT (Reuters) - A booby-trapped motorbike exploded in the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli on Monday, killing a child and wounding six other people, the monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.
Syrian state TV said a motorbike had exploded and reported that four people were wounded but did not immediately mention deaths.
Qamishli is in an area mostly under the control of Kurdish security forces. Bomb blasts, often claimed by Islamic State, have occurred in Qamishli and nearby Hasaka city, both under Kurdish control, but have been rare in the last year.
The Kurdish YPG militia is spearheading a U.S.-backed offensive to drive Islamic State out of the jihadist group’s remaining strongholds in eastern Syria, including its former de facto Syrian capital, Raqqa.
Islamic State also reported the bombing via its online Amaq news agency, saying it had targeted a vehicle belonging to Kurdish security forces. It did not explicitly claim the attack.
Reporting by John Davison, additional reporting by Ahmed Tolba in Cairo; editing by Larry King

CPC to amend party constitution

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BEIJING, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- The Communist Party of China (CPC) will amend its constitution at the upcoming national congress.
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on Monday deliberated a draft amendment to the constitution at a meeting presided over by Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee.
AMENDING PARTY CONSTITUTION
Amending the constitution at the 19th CPC National Congress on the basis of the new situation and tasks would promote the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics and Party building, said a statement issued after the meeting.
It said the amendment must include the key theories and strategic thought presented by a report to be delivered at the 19th CPC National Congress.
"The amended constitution must fully represent the latest sinicization of Marxism, new governance concepts, thought and strategies of the CPC Central Committee since the 18th CPC National Congress, as well as new experience in adhering to and strengthening Party leadership and in strict Party governance," according to the statement.
It also noted that the amendment should make the CPC more vigorous, stronger and enable it to keep a close connection with the people.
The draft amendment will be submitted to the seventh plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, which will be held on Oct. 11, for discussion.
The CPC constitution was last amended in 2012.
REPORT TO CONGRESS
The meeting also reviewed the draft report by the 18th CPC Central Committee to the 19th CPC National Congress. The draft will be submitted to the seventh plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee for discussion.
"Wisdom should be pooled to draw up a report which conforms to the common wish shared by the Party and people of all ethnic groups, meets the requirements for socialist development with Chinese characteristics and adapts to the new situation and tasks for the work of the Party and the country," the statement said.
"The 19th CPC National Congress is a very important meeting to be held at a critical stage when China is striving for achieving a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and at a critical time for the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics."
It also said that the congress has a great significance in inspiring and mobilizing people to forge ahead.
The statement said it is imperative to analyze the development trend of the world and China, take into account new requirements for the country's development and new expectations from the people, and summarize the experience that the Party has gained from leading the people to advance the reform and opening up and the building of socialist modernization.
"The people-oriented development thought should be implemented to solve the conspicuous problems faced by the country and a strategic plan should be made for the causes of the Party and the country to promote balanced economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological progress and coordinated implementation of the Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy," the statement said.
The Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy refers to building a moderately prosperous society, deepening reform, advancing law-based governance and strengthening Party self-governance.
STRICT PARTY GOVERNANCE
The meeting reviewed a report on the implementation of the eight-point frugality code by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee since the code was introduced in 2012 and the political bureau's role in leading the Party to improve work styles.
It said that the eight-point rule has played an important role in safeguarding the Party's authority and tightening the flesh and blood ties between the Party and the people.
The meeting also asked the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and leading officials at all levels to take the lead in overcoming formalism, bureaucratism, hedonism and extravagance, saying that efforts should be made to address both symptoms and root causes of unwanted work styles.
The meeting also studied a draft work report by the 18th CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to be submitted to the upcoming 19th CPC National Congress.
It called for upholding and strengthening the leadership of the Party, promoting clean governance, and deepening the anti-corruption battle to pave way for achieving the two centennial goals and the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation

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